The U.S. retail real estate sector enters the second half of 2025 with strong fundamentals, marked by low vacancies, sustained consumer traffic, and significant retailer expansion. Below is a concise, data-backed market overview and outlook for the year.
1. Market Overview and Foot Traffic
According to CBRE’s 2025 U.S. Retail Market Outlook, retail foot traffic fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels by Q3 2024 and is projected to surpass 2019 volumes through 2025. Colliers’ June 2025 Retail Report shows total retail sales rose 3.7% YoY, with core retail up 3.9%. Foot traffic drivers include furniture visits (+6.1%), apparel (+6.7%), and average dwell times of 39 minutes. Cushman & Wakefield reports prime open-air and grocery-anchored centers maintain 4–5% vacancy, underscoring tight supply.
2. Dominant Market Trends
- Experiential and Omnichannel Retail: Coresight Research (2025) notes 81% of shoppers prefer stores offering interactive experiences, with retailers enhancing engagement via tech and loyalty programs.
- Shift to Smaller Formats: Helm Ventures’ 2025 Outlook highlights a move toward compact urban and suburban stores that lower costs and align with multi-year leases.
- Big-Box Redevelopment: Retail Specialists (2025) report vacated department stores are increasingly converted into mixed-use and service-oriented spaces, driving NOI growth.
- Suburban Open-Air Strength: Innowave Studio (2025) ranks Miami (2.8% vacancy) and Cleveland as top performers, with suburban lifestyle centers outperforming enclosed malls.
3. Major Retailer Expansion Plans
| Retailer | Expansion Plans 2025 |
| Aldi | 225 new stores, largest annual expansion (Real Simple) |
| Target | 20 new stores + remodel program (Fox Business) |
| Walmart / Sam’s Club | ~9 Walmart stores, 15 Sam’s Clubs; all 600 remodeled with AI-enabled formats (Houston Chronicle) |
| Dollar General & Dollar Tree | 1,300+ combined openings (CRE Daily) |
| Boot Barn, Burlington, Abercrombie | Multi-year suburban and secondary market expansion (CRE Daily) |
4. Strategic Takeaways
- Focus on open-air and mixed-use centers—most resilient for rent growth.
- Provide flexible space configurations to attract smaller-format, expansion-minded tenants.
- Leverage foot traffic analytics (e.g., Placer.ai) to validate tenant performance.
- Target high-growth suburban corridors in Florida, Texas, and the Midwest for fastest leasing velocity.
5. 2025 Market Outlook
The Wall Street Journal (2025) notes urban closures still outpace openings in select markets, and inflation may weigh on discretionary sales. Yet low vacancy, robust expansion pipelines, and sustained consumer activity position 2025 as a strong year for retail investors and developers.
6. New York City Metro Retail Market
The NYC metro market shows renewed strength entering 2025. Institutional Property Advisors report robust job growth and rising investor activity. Manhattan’s retail availability fell to 14.6% in Q1 2025, the lowest since 2017. High-profile deals like Burlington’s 80,000 sf Ladies’ Mile lease and Printemps’ 55,000 sf One Wall Street opening are driving momentum. Transit and policy tailwinds—including congestion pricing and 8.5% subway ridership growth—support renewed foot traffic. Overall, the NYC metro remains one of the nation’s most dynamic retail markets with tightening vacancy and experiential flagship growth.
Sources: CBRE 2025 U.S. Retail Market Outlook; Colliers June 2025; Coresight Research 2025; Cushman & Wakefield 2025; Real Simple; Fox Business; Houston Chronicle; CRE Daily; Innowave Studio; Retail Specialists; Helm Ventures; WSJ; Institutional Property Advisors; NYC Transit Data.