If you needed one chart to explain why shopping center owners are walking into ICSC Las Vegas this week with their shoulders back, it would be the pricing line — average open-air retail trades at $142 per square foot, up 14% over the five-year average, and a national vacancy rate sitting nearly a full point below the long-run norm. Capital, tenants, and developers are all pointing the same direction at the same time, and that doesn’t happen often in this asset class.

The headline: capital is back, and it’s buying open-air

Q1 2026 closed with more than $15 billion of retail investment trades — the highest quarterly figure in three years — and the bid is no longer being driven by syndicators chasing yield. Institutional bid volume is up 102% over the past two years and REIT bid volume is up 117%, the strongest showing from those buyer pools since 2016. Translation for owners: the cap rate compression we’ve been waiting for is actually starting to print on closed comps, not just LOIs.

Leasing fundamentals are at a two-decade high

The story underneath the trades is even more interesting than the trades themselves. CoStar pegs national shopping center vacancy at 4.4% — well below the 5.3% historical average — and U.S. shopping center leasing volume has reached its strongest level in twenty years. Kimco’s portfolio occupancy hit an all-time high of 96.4% with a record $73M signed-but-not-open pipeline. Brixmor posted a historic 100 bps sequential occupancy gain to 95.1% and a record $70M ABR leasing year. Regency just closed its strongest operational year as a public company with 5.3% same-property NOI growth.

This is the part that matters for owners of unanchored and grocery-anchored strip in our market: you’re not just leasing into a tight environment — you’re leasing into a tight environment where the tenant rosters expanding fastest happen to be the categories that drive traffic to your other tenants.

Who’s actually opening stores

Coresight is now projecting roughly 5,500 store openings in 2026, up 4.4% year over year, against 7,900 closings, down 4.5%. The expansion list reads like a leasing rep’s wish list:

• Target — 30 new stores in 13 priority markets in 2026, backed by a $5 billion capex commitment between new builds and remodels.
• Dollar General, Aldi, and Tractor Supply — leading all retailers in planned openings this year, with continued aggressive growth in suburban and tertiary trade areas.
• TJ Maxx — a wave of openings continues, including a new box at Wilmington Plaza in Ohio scheduled to open by the end of May.
• Wawa — launching a Tennessee expansion in June with a Clarksville opening and five additional stores in-state this year.

The common thread: value, convenience, and traffic generation. The categories that survived the 2024–2025 reset are now the categories underwriting most of the gross leasing in our pipeline.

The closures column — same names, fewer surprises

The closure side of the ledger is shrinking, and it’s increasingly concentrated in a predictable set of restructurings rather than broad category retreat. Saks Global is working through Chapter 11 and shedding eight Saks Fifth Avenue stores plus roughly 57 Saks Off 5th locations, with several rolling through closure in May. Francesca’s is winding down its remaining U.S. fleet. The last Neiman Marcus Last Call outlets are closing through the spring. IKEA closed its Memphis store on May 3 as part of a strategic re-focus on high-growth markets.

What we’re watching at ICSC Las Vegas this week

ICSC Las Vegas continues to be the single most useful temperature check on the year. Three things on our radar walking into the show:

• Grocery-anchored cap rates — every desk we’ve spoken with says best-in-class deals are clearing inside of 6%, and we expect that to be reinforced on the show floor.
• Tenant rep activity from off-price and grocery — TJX, Ross, Burlington, ALDI, Lidl, Sprouts, and Trader Joe’s continue to drive a disproportionate share of net absorption.
• Redevelopment and densification — outparcel pads, drive-thru conversions, and small-shop right-sizing are the highest-IRR plays in the existing portfolio universe right now.

What this means for owners on Long Island and across the NY metro

Our market is a microcosm of every trend above — and in some respects, more so. Construction pipelines here have been functionally frozen for years, which means the supply story is even tighter than the national numbers suggest. We’re seeing meaningful rent growth on quality second-generation space, multiple bids on grocery-anchored offerings, and tenants accepting longer terms and harder commitments than at any point in the post-COVID cycle. If you own a well-located neighborhood center and you haven’t refreshed your rent roll or tested the market in the last 18 months, you’re probably underpricing the asset.

Reach out if you want to compare notes — we’re always happy to share what we’re seeing in the field.