A retail and commercial real estate market update from Schuckman Realty Inc., drawing on the latest national retail data and headlines.
Steadfast Consumer Spending Translates to Record Core Retail Sales
Households continued to spend in May despite elevated fuel prices and persistent price pressures, with core retail sales up 0.5 percent monthly and 5.6 percent annually. Spending rose in real terms on both fronts, supported by limited cost pass-through by retailers, consumer resilience, and more households drawing on savings to cover daily expenses. The momentum was not universal: general merchandise, miscellaneous retail, and online stores registered record sales, while restaurant and electronics spending dipped amid discretionary budget-trimming.
Inflation may be easing. Energy prices remained elevated last month, but that pressure did not significantly spill into other categories. Core CPI and food-at-home pricing rose just 0.2 and 0.1 percent, respectively. Consumers have also felt relief at the pump, as the average price of gas fell below $4 per gallon in mid-June for the first time since March.
Discount-oriented categories shine. Online spending increased 1.5 percent for the month and an impressive 12.2 percent annually. One-fourth of all core retail sales now take place online, underscoring the importance of supply-chain efficiency for omnichannel retailers and the challenging environment for some smaller brick-and-mortar shops.
Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Major retailers navigate a challenging environment. After-tax profits of U.S. retail corporations with assets of at least $50 million totaled $64.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, up nearly 40 percent year-over-year, alongside 4.7 percent sales growth. The divergence indicates that larger retailers are scaling operations and improving efficiency to expand after-tax margins, which reached 5.7 percent in the first quarter.
Tenant demand is shifting. Preliminary second-quarter data point to a return to positive retail absorption after tenants relinquished a net 4.2 million square feet during the first three months of the year. Increases in both single- and multi-tenant demand are driving the improvement, with department store and power center leasing especially noteworthy.
Prime Day Powers a Record E-Commerce Stretch
Amazon hosted Prime Day June 23-26, and Adobe projected U.S. retailers would drive a record $26.3 billion in online spend over the four days, a 9 percent increase over 2025 and more than Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025 combined. The first day alone generated $8.3 billion in online spend, up 5.3 percent year-over-year and the biggest single U.S. e-commerce day of 2026 so far. Numerator data showed a more budget-conscious shopper, however, with the average order size down roughly 14 percent and average household spend down 17 percent versus the same period in 2025.
Headlines Across the Retail Landscape
Discount & General Merchandise
- Walmart entered a reported $1.4 billion deal to acquire France-based connected-TV advertising platform Vibe.co, expanding its retail-media footprint.
- Target is opening 11 stores this July as part of more than 30 planned for 2026, backed by a $5 billion capital investment plan and a goal of 300-plus new stores by 2035.
Grocery
- Winn-Dixie completed the conversion of eight Harveys Supermarket locations to the Winn-Dixie banner, unifying its store portfolio under one name.
- Amazon and Whole Foods cross-shopping has risen dramatically: more than 17 million U.S. households shopped both in the 12 months ending April 30, 2026, up 55 percent from 2019.
Home & Specialty Retail
- Bath & Body Works will bring a curated selection of products to more than 600 Ulta Beauty stores and Ulta.com starting July 12.
- The Container Store + Bed Bath & Beyond co-branded concept is expanding to nearly two dozen locations in phase one of its rollout.
Restaurants
- Darden Brands bucked a softening full-service dining category, with total visits across its nine-brand portfolio up 2.4 percent in Q1 2026.
- On The Border filed for Chapter 7 liquidation after closing all company-owned locations; parent Pappas Restaurants continues operating its other brands.
Convenience, Dollar & Other
- Casey’s General Stores unveiled a three-year plan to add 400 new stores while expanding food and beverage offerings.
- Consumer Cellular opened its 100th company-owned store, leaning into in-person service for its 50-plus customer base.
- South Korea-based Dear U International leased nearly 10,000 square feet at 24 Union Square East in Manhattan for an experiential K-pop concept.
What It Means
The throughline is a resilient but value-driven consumer, a healthier outlook for retail absorption, and continued expansion from well-capitalized national tenants. For landlords and investors in supermarket-anchored and net-lease retail, the return to positive absorption and strong tenant expansion plans are encouraging signals heading into the second half of 2026.
Sources
- Marcus & Millichap / Al Taf Team, “Top Retail News,” June 26, 2026.
- Chain Store Age, retail news coverage, June 2026.
- Adobe Analytics and Numerator, Amazon Prime Day 2026 tracking data.