Who Won &
Who Lost
This Earnings Season
Q4 2025 retail earnings are in — and the results reveal a consumer landscape that’s rewriting the rules of who thrives in American retail. Here’s what every landlord, developer, and leasing professional needs to know.
The Numbers That Matter
The Full Scorecard
Dramatically beat its own 4% forecast. Broad-based strength in shoes, cosmetics, and branded apparel drove the best holiday in years. Plans 110 new stores in 2026 and raised its dividend 10%.
One of the strongest comp numbers in all of retail this quarter. Novelty-driven assortment and under-$10 price ceiling generated extraordinary holiday traffic across all demographics.
EPS of $4.99 beat estimates of $4.74. Revenue of $3.64B exceeded forecasts. Margins improved 100 basis points. Projects 8–10% total sales growth in 2026 with 110 new locations planned.
E-commerce grew 20%+ for the fourth consecutive quarter. Grocery attracted shoppers across all income levels. Membership revenue surged 15% globally. Full-year revenue reached $713 billion.
Handily beat both Q4 earnings and revenue expectations. Holiday demand for antibacterial products, lotions, and gift-ready personal care essentials drove strong traffic and conversion all season.
New CEO Greg Foran (former Walmart US head) is back to basics: lower prices, better stores, more traffic. E-commerce reached $16B in annual sales with 20% Q4 growth. Stock jumped 3.4% on earnings day.
Met Q4 estimates but issued a soft Q1 guide of $3.5–3.6B vs. street at $4.2B. Winter storms forced ~800 temporary store closures. Raised full-year EPS guidance modestly — turnaround on track but cautious.
Appliances and home theater dragged comps lower. Computing and mobile partially offset the declines. Annual revenue rose modestly after three years of decline — a tentative stabilization, not a full recovery.
Four consecutive quarters of declining customer traffic. New CEO Michael Fiddelke unveiled a turnaround plan, and February 2026 sales turned positive for the first time — encouraging, but still very early days.
The Value Consumer Is Rewriting Retail
The clearest signal from Q4 2025: the American consumer hasn’t stopped spending — they’ve stopped overpaying. Off-price, discount, and grocery-anchored formats dominated, while full-price discretionary retail struggled to generate traffic.
Retailers that gave consumers a clear reason to choose them — whether through price, convenience, or necessity — won big. Those without a compelling value proposition continued to lose share.
For commercial real estate, this is not a temporary trend. It’s structural.
Three Takeaways for Landlords & Developers
The retailers posting the strongest numbers all share one trait: consumers feel they’re getting a deal. Grocery anchors, off-price, and discount concepts are generating the traffic that lifts the rest of a center. Landlords who lead with a value-oriented anchor have a structural advantage in 2026.
With 110 new stores each planned by Burlington and Ross in 2026, the off-price sector is backfilling vacancies left by department stores at a pace not seen in years. For centers with 25,000–50,000 SF of vacant anchor space, the window to attract these tenants is open right now.
Target’s four-quarter traffic decline is a lesson for any retailer — or shopping center — without a clear reason for existing. Centers that blend grocery, off-price, fitness, dining, and services into a cohesive ecosystem are outperforming those anchored by undifferentiated soft goods. Tenant mix is strategy.