March 2026 Retail Report

Northeast Retail Tenant Expansion Briefing | Schuckman Realty Inc.

Northeast Retail Tenant Expansion Briefing — Leasing intelligence for NY metro shopping centers. Jump to Prospect List ↓

Leasing Intelligence Report

Who Is Signing Leases in the Northeast Right Now

50+ expanding tenants across grocery, fitness, QSR, off-price, entertainment, and medtail — with SF requirements, preferred formats, and recent NY metro signings.

Geography NY / NJ / CT / Long Island
Categories 6 Tenant Categories
Prepared by Schuckman Realty Inc.
Date March 2026
3.9%
National Suburban Vacancy
20yr
High in Leasing Velocity
+40%
Rolling Rent Increases
360+
Off-Price Openings 2026
Target store exterior
Target 30+ new stores in 2026 · $5B capex
Victoria's Secret storefront
Specialty Retail Evolving inline tenant mix
GAP busy urban storefront
Urban Street Retail Foot traffic returning to pre-pandemic levels
Walmart Supercenter
Walmart Supercenter Digital shelves + drone delivery expanding
Costco Wholesale
Costco Wholesale 28 new warehouses planned nationally

Market Conditions Snapshot

NY Metro Shopping Centers — March 2026

Suburban Vacancy
~3.9%
↓ Tightening
Landlord pricing power at multi-decade high
Leasing Velocity
20-yr High
↑ Accelerating
Quality tenants competing for limited space
Avg. Lease-Up Time
8.5 mo
↓ Shortening
Faster stabilization for acquisitions
Rolling Rent Increase
+20–40%
↑ Rising
Mark-to-market opportunity in every renewal
New Supply Pipeline
Near Zero
⊘ Static
Construction costs up 41.7% over 5 years
Grocery-Anchored Cap Rate
~4.5%
↓ Compressing
Institutional demand driving values higher
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Long Island Is the Single Hottest Submarket

Sprouts, Trader Joe’s, Wegmans, Uncle Giuseppe’s, Topgolf, Ross, Shake Shack, Whole Foods, and Walmart Supercenter are all expanding on Long Island simultaneously. Stop & Shop’s wave of closures has created an immediate backfill pipeline that competing tenants are racing to absorb.

Sprouts (first NY store) Trader Joe’s (new DC) Wegmans (Lake Grove debut) Ross (4 new stores) Topgolf Holtsville Shake Shack Drive-Thru Uncle Giuseppe’s (3 new) The Picklr
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01

Grocery — Discount & Specialty Chains Flooding the Northeast

Most active grocery leasing environment in a decade

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The grocery category is the most active it has been in a decade. Stop & Shop’s closure of 32 stores across NY, NJ, CT, MA, and RI has created a wave of 40,000–60,000 SF boxes that Aldi, Sprouts, and others are racing to absorb — while big-box operators like Wegmans and BJ’s Wholesale push into previously underserved Long Island markets.

Walmart Supercenter expanding in NY metro
Walmart Supercenter · Long Island Supercenter expansion ongoing
Most Active Tenants
Aldi
180+ new U.S. stores in 2026, backed by $9B investment through 2028. 33 NY and 24+ NJ stores already. Backfilling Stop & Shop boxes throughout CT. Targets strip centers, freestanding pads, end-caps with strong parking.
Most Active 16K–22K SF
Lidl
Pivoted to 15,000–25,000 SF shopping center and urban formats. Opened Park Slope, LES, Chelsea, Hackensack, Paramus, Freehold NJ in 2025. Actively seeking strip center and ground-floor mixed-use.
Very Active 15K–25K SF
Sprouts Farmers Market
First NY store opened Jan 30, 2026 — Centereach, Long Island (24,000 SF, former L.A. Fitness). Hartsdale Sept 2026; Levittown and Smithtown LI for 2027. 140+ sites approved nationally.
New to NY 23K–30K SF
Trader Joe’s
Opened Miller Place LI and Shelton CT in early 2026. Staten Island, Glenmont NY, and Iselin NJ in pipeline. Building 921,000 SF distribution center on Long Island.
Steady 8K–15K SF
Whole Foods / Daily Shop
100+ stores planned nationally. Daily Shop small format (7,000–14,000 SF) launched Hoboken NJ, heading to Williamsburg Brooklyn. 10 locations targeted by year-end 2026.
Active 7K–50K SF
ShopRite / Wakefern
$20.7B in sales. New stores in West Caldwell NJ (90K SF), Staten Island (62K SF), Manahawkin NJ. Acquired Morton Williams’ 17 NYC stores and three Philly-area ShopRites.
Active 60K–90K+ SF
Uncle Giuseppe’s
Rapid Long Island expansion: Bohemia, Greenvale (56K SF), Levittown (50K SF). Actively backfilling closed big-box retailers. Hiring 1,000+ amid major expansion push.
LI Focused 40K–56K SF
Wegmans
Long Island debut Lake Grove (101K SF, Feb 2025). First CT store Norwalk (92K SF, July 2025). A transformative anchor drawing from a 15+ mile radius. Selective but high-impact.
80K–115K SF
BJ’s Wholesale Club
Record 14 clubs in 2025 including Whippany NJ and Staten Island. 9 more planned in 2026. Gas station component drives pad site demand and adjacent traffic for centers.
Active ~106K SF
Grocery SF & Format Reference
GrocerTypical SFPreferred FormatNE Activity
Aldi16,000–22,000Strip center, freestanding, end-capVery High — 330 NE stores by 2028
Lidl15,000–25,000Shopping centers, urban storefrontVery High — densifying NYC/NJ
Sprouts23,000–30,000Suburban strip, end-capHigh — first NY store Jan 2026
Trader Joe’s8,000–15,000Neighborhood strip, standaloneSteady — new LI distribution center
Whole Foods / Daily Shop7,000–50,000Mixed-use, suburban anchorHigh — Daily Shop rollout
BJ’s Wholesale~106,000Power center, freestanding w/ gasHigh — record openings
ShopRite60,000–90,000+Grocery-anchored centerHigh — acquisitions + new builds
Wegmans80,000–115,000Affluent suburban anchorSelective — transformative anchor
H Mart25,000–45,000Malls, suburban centersModerate — NJ remodels
Uncle Giuseppe’s40,000–56,000Suburban shopping centersHigh — 3 new LI stores
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02

Fitness — The New Anchor Tenant Category

5M+ SF leased by fitness chains in 2025 alone

Fitness clubs have become the dominant absorbers of big-box retail vacancies across the Northeast. CoStar calls them the “darlings of retail landlords.” The top two chains signed over 5 million SF in 2025, with the pace accelerating in 2026.

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Crunch Fitness
Led entire fitness industry with 4.27M SF leased in 2025 (+48% YoY). Plans ~100 new gyms in 2026. 12+ Connecticut locations in development. Aggressively converts theaters, grocery stores, and big-box spaces.
#1 by SF Leased 25K–35K SF
Planet Fitness
Opened 181 clubs in 2025 (2,896 total). Plans 180–190 in 2026. HQ in Hampton, NH — the Northeast is its home market. Explicitly targeting former Big Lots and Bed Bath & Beyond spaces.
Very Active 15K–25K SF
Life Time Fitness
Major NYC push: Brooklyn Tower (H2 2026), 10 Bryant Park (52K SF, early 2027), Gowanus Brooklyn (85K+ SF with rooftop beach club). Already 9 NYC and 8 NJ locations. Requires premium mixed-use.
37K–127K SF
PureGym (fka Blink Fitness)
Acquired all 56 Blink NY/NJ locations for $121M. Full rebrand complete December 8, 2025. UK-based operator may seek new NE sites beyond legacy Blink footprint in urban/transit-oriented formats.
New Brand 5K–15K SF
⚠ Opportunity — LA Fitness Is in Retreat

LA Fitness is closing Long Island, CT, and NJ locations after shutting down the Esporta brand entirely. These 40,000–50,000 SF boxes — with high ceilings already in place — represent immediate backfill opportunities for Crunch, Planet Fitness, or entertainment concepts.

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03

Fast Casual & QSR — New Entrants, Drive-Thru Premium

Pad site demand at a multi-year high across the NY metro

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Drive-thru demand is at a premium. The most competitive leasing environment in the NY metro market is pad sites with drive-thru potential. Raising Cane’s, Chick-fil-A, 7 Brew, Chipotle Chipotlane, and Taco Bell Go Mobile are all competing for the same limited inventory of end-caps and outparcels.

Retail center exterior showing strong parking demand
Suburban retail centers · QSR pad site demand surging in NY metro
Raising Cane’s
Most significant new QSR entrant. Systematic NJ rollout: Burlington, Cherry Hill, Deptford, Edison, Fairfield (Feb 2026). Central/north NJ and NY in active pipeline. Will convert former banks and fast food boxes.
New to Market Drive-Thru Required 3K–3.5K SF
Chick-fil-A
Rebuilding NJ with dual-lane drive-thru formats: East Brunswick, Glassboro, Mount Laurel, Bridgewater NJ; Downtown Brooklyn, Jackson Heights, Levittown, Hudson Valley NY. Will demolish for rebuilds.
Very Active Dual-Lane DT 4K–5K SF
Chipotle (Chipotlane)
350–370 new restaurants in 2026. 80%+ feature the Chipotlane digital pickup lane. Investment-grade credit (Baa3/BBB-) with strong rent payment history. NE is a priority expansion region.
Active Chipotlane End-Cap 2K–2.4K SF
Shake Shack
55–60 new locations in 2026 — its largest pipeline ever. First drive-thru on Long Island (Blue Point); also Holbrook and Commack LI. NYC flagship brand going suburban in a major way.
LI Drive-Thru Debut 2.4K–3K SF
7 Brew Coffee
Explosive new entrant: 29 new stands in January 2026 alone. Prefab 500–700 SF double-lane drive-thru-only stands on pad sites. Confirmed NY, PA, and CT expansion. Ideal outparcel tenant.
New to NE Drive-Thru Only 500–700 SF
CAVA
Surpassed $1.17B in revenue in 2025. 74–76 new locations in 2026 concentrating on Mid-Atlantic/Northeast densification. Strong unit economics and growing brand equity among 25–45 demographic.
Active 2.4K–3K SF
Dave’s Hot Chicken
Deep NJ penetration: Wayne, Kearny, Secaucus, Paramus, East Brunswick, Hamilton. Converting former restaurants and fast food boxes. Celebrity-backed with rapid franchise growth nationwide.
Active NJ 1.5K–2.2K SF
First Watch
Daytime-only breakfast/brunch entering New England (Hanover MA, downtown Boston). Ideal for suburban strip centers — no dinner competition, strong weekend traffic driver. 3,200–4,200 SF preferred.
New to NE 3.2K–4.2K SF
QSR Drive-Thru Reference
ChainSF RequiredDrive-Thru?Recent NE Activity
Raising Cane’s3,000–3,500RequiredSystematic NJ rollout; 5+ locations in 2025–26
Chick-fil-A4,000–5,000Dual-lane requiredRebuilding NJ; multiple new NY/NJ sites
Chipotle (Chipotlane)2,000–2,400Preferred end-cap350–370 new nationally; NE priority
Shake Shack2,400–3,000New LI locationsBlue Point, Holbrook, Commack LI
7 Brew Coffee500–700Drive-thru only29 new stands in Jan 2026; entering NY
CAVA2,400–3,000No74–76 new in 2026; NE densification
Dave’s Hot Chicken1,500–2,200PreferredWayne, Kearny, Secaucus, Paramus, more
Wingstop1,200–1,800NoJersey City, Mercer County, steady infill
First Watch3,200–4,200NoEntering NE; Boston flagship; suburban focus
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04

Off-Price & Value Retail — Absorbing Every Available Box

360+ combined new store openings planned for 2026

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The three major off-price chains have collectively committed to over 360 new U.S. store openings in 2026 — making this the single dominant demand category for suburban shopping center space. Bankruptcy vacancies from Saks OFF 5TH, Eddie Bauer, and Joann Fabrics are being absorbed faster than new supply comes available.

Costco wholesale club exterior at dusk
Costco Wholesale · 28 new warehouses planned · membership demand at all-time high
Ross Dress for Less
New to the NY metro market, now rapidly densifying. Opened Hempstead, Farmingville, Lake Grove, and Riverhead on Long Island; West Long Branch and Brick NJ. 110 new stores planned for fiscal 2026.
New to NY Very Active 21K–25K SF
Burlington
110 net new stores in 2026. New “Store 2.0” format shrunk to ~18,000 SF from 60–80K legacy, making Burlington competitive for far more NY metro locations. Acquired 45 former Joann Fabrics leases and 13 Big Lots sites.
Very Active 18K–30K SF (2.0)
TJX Companies
146 net new stores globally in fiscal 2027 across T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, and Sierra. Long-term target: 7,000 stores. Signed 183,803 SF at 620 Sixth Avenue Manhattan.
Active 25K–30K SF
Nordstrom Rack
22 new stores in 2026 including East Brunswick NJ (Brunswick Square, 27K SF) and Deptford NJ. Targeting 400-store fleet by 2028. Consistently delivers strong co-tenancy for surrounding inline tenants.
Active 25K–35K SF
Primark
79,000 SF Herald Square flagship opening 2026. Existing NE: Kings Plaza Brooklyn (58K SF), American Dream NJ, Newport Centre Jersey City (35.7K SF). Targeting 60 US stores by end of 2026.
35K–80K SF
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet
Acquired 63 former Big Lots leases. Opened 85 stores in fiscal 2025; plans 75 more. Deep Northeast penetration. Absorbs 32,000+ SF big-box spaces that most retailers won’t touch.
32K+ SF
⚑ Bankruptcy Backfill Opportunity

Saks OFF 5TH is liquidating 57 locations (~28,000 SF avg, including Huntington Station LI by late May 2026). Eddie Bauer is closing all 170–220 stores by April 30. Francesca’s is liquidating all 457 inline locations. A&G Real Estate Partners is running the Saks lease auction — these spaces are perfectly sized for Ross, Burlington 2.0, or fitness concepts.

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05

Entertainment & Experiential — Reshaping Large-Format Leasing

Pickleball is the fastest-growing entertainment category in retail real estate

Pickleball is the fastest-growing entertainment category in Northeast retail real estate, with multiple brands aggressively leasing 25,000–60,000 SF former big-box and mall spaces. All pickleball concepts require a minimum 20-foot ceiling height — immediately qualifying former theater, grocery, and big-box boxes.

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Pickleball — Most Active Large-Format Demand
The Picklr
Signed East Brunswick NJ (40K SF, 13 courts, former Brunswick Square Mall) and Centereach Long Island. Franchise rights sold for Long Island, Brooklyn, Queens, and parts of NJ. Third NJ location opening 2026.
Expanding Fast 40K SF / 20+ ft
Pickleball Kingdom
Opened Hamilton, Tinton Falls, and Watchung NJ (40K SF each). Acquired The Pickle Jar in Hillsborough. Actively seeking additional NY/NJ/CT locations. Franchise model with strong unit economics.
Active NJ 40K SF
SPORTIME Pickleball
325+ courts under management across the tri-state. New clubs in Wayne NJ, Yorktown NY, and Armonk NY. Strong Long Island and Westchester presence. Experienced NY operator.
Active Tri-State 25K–60K SF
Topgolf
NY’s first location in Holtsville, Long Island (3-story, 102 bays) nearly complete. Parsippany NJ ($30M, 67.5K SF, Route 46) opening summer 2026. Neptune Township (Jersey Shore) in planning.
Opening Now 65K–67K SF / 10+ ac
Round 1 Entertainment
40K–80K SF former department store specialist. Active NE: Queens (80K SF), Edison/Menlo Park (59.2K SF), Elizabeth/Jersey Gardens (41K SF), Danbury CT (61K SF).
Active 40K–80K SF
Activate Games
Active gaming concept in 5,000–14,650 SF. Three NJ locations opened by Feb 2026: American Dream, Cherry Hill, Woodbridge. Fills former Rite Aid and strip center vacancies.
3 NJ in 2026 5K–14.7K SF
⚑ Ceiling Height Is the Key Qualifier

Pickleball, Topgolf, trampoline parks, and immersive gaming concepts all require 18–24+ foot clear heights. Former movie theaters (18–25 ft), grocery stores (18–24 ft), and big-box retail (16–22 ft) are the primary candidates. Verify clear height before tenant outreach.

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06

Healthcare / Medtail — Longest Leases, Most Recession-Proof Demand

10–15 year NNN terms with institutional credit

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Healthcare tenants now occupy roughly 20% of all leased medical space within retail properties nationally. For NY metro shopping center landlords, medtail offers a compelling combination: 10–15 year lease terms, NNN structures, strong credit, and complete immunity to e-commerce displacement.

Retail storefront ground-floor space
Ground-floor retail · Medtail tenants preferring high-visibility strip center storefronts
CityMD
150+ locations across NYC and NJ. Expanding into CT (Norwalk, Sept 2024). Up to $250/SF on the UWS. Backed by VillageMD/Summit Health/Walgreens Boots Alliance credit. 10–15 year terms typical.
Most Active 10–15 yr NNN 3.5K–5K SF
Aspen Dental
Opens 75+ practices per year nationally (1,000+ total). Recent NE: Newton and Sicklerville NJ; Selden and Harriman NY; Killingly CT. Targets strip/power center end-caps and pad sites on major corridors.
Very Active 10–15 yr NNN 3K–5K SF
GoHealth / Northwell
12+ Northwell Health-branded urgent care centers on Long Island. Expanding further across the metro. Health system credit backing. 2,500–4,500 SF in shopping centers and retail strips.
Active LI/NYC 2.5K–4.5K SF
Bond Vet
22 NYC locations. Fastest-growing vet concept in the region. Leases 2,300–2,400 SF ground-floor storefronts. Strong PE backing. 7–10 year terms. Also expanding to suburban markets.
Active NYC 2.3K–2.4K SF
Warby Parker
50 new stores in 2026 (323 total; targeting 900+). Malls, streetfront, and grocery-anchored centers. New Target shop-in-shops in NJ and PA. Strong suburban strip center demand.
Active 1.5K–2.5K SF
Oak Street Health (CVS)
Targeting 300+ centers for Medicare-focused primary care. Existing Brooklyn locations. Standard 5,000–10,000 SF strip center or standalone with CVS Health as guarantor.
NNN / CVS Credit 5K–10K SF
Medtail Lease Reference
CategoryTypical SFLease TermKey NE Tenant
Urgent Care3,500–5,00010–15 yearsCityMD (150+ locations)
Dental3,000–5,00010–15 yearsAspen Dental (75+/year)
Veterinary2,000–3,0007–10 yearsBond Vet (22 NYC locations)
Optometry / Eyewear1,500–2,5005–10 yearsWarby Parker (50 new in 2026)
Primary Care2,500–10,00010–15 yearsOak Street Health, Amazon One Medical
Physical Therapy1,500–4,5005–10 yearsJAG PT, Professional PT
Dialysis5,000–12,00010–15 yearsDaVita, Fresenius
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07

Prioritized Prospect List — Who to Call First

Ranked by lease-signing velocity, credit quality, and stated NE expansion commitments

For a shopping center owner or leasing broker in the NY metro area, the following three-tier ranking reflects active lease-signing velocity, creditworthiness, and stated Northeast expansion commitments as of March 2026.

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1 Actively Signing Now — Highest Urgency
Ross Dress for Less (new to market, 110 stores planned)  •  Burlington (110 stores, acquiring bankruptcy leases)  •  Aldi (180+ stores/year, $9B investment)  •  Crunch Fitness (100 new clubs, 4.27M SF leased in 2025)  •  Raising Cane’s (systematic NJ rollout)  •  Chick-fil-A (dual-lane rebuilds across NJ/NY)  •  The Picklr / Pickleball Kingdom / SPORTIME (pickleball)  •  CityMD (150+ and growing)
2 Strong Pipeline — Right Format Needed
Sprouts (entering NY, 23K–30K SF)  •  Lidl (densifying NYC/NJ)  •  Chipotle (350+ openings, Chipotlane)  •  CAVA (74–76 new)  •  7 Brew Coffee (pad-site drive-thrus)  •  Shake Shack (first LI drive-thrus)  •  TJX / HomeGoods / Sierra (146 new globally)  •  Primark (large-format mall)  •  Planet Fitness (180–190 new)  •  Life Time Fitness (premium mixed-use)  •  Warby Parker (50 new stores)  •  Aspen Dental (75+/year)  •  Bond Vet (rapid NYC growth)  •  Round 1 (mall re-anchoring)
3 Monitor Closely — Emerging Opportunity
Whole Foods Daily Shop (small-format rollout)  •  Wegmans (selective but transformative)  •  Trader Joe’s (steady growth, new LI DC)  •  Uncle Giuseppe’s (LI expansion)  •  Dave’s Hot Chicken (NJ pipeline)  •  First Watch (entering NE)  •  Activate Games (small-format entertainment)  •  Level99 (CT entry, mall concept)  •  Oak Street Health (Medicare expansion)  •  Amazon One Medical  •  Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (backfilling Big Lots)
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